Ipsa Tripathy
Bhubaneswar: When a cyclone approaches the coast, the first information usually comes from satellites, weather radars, computer models and official warning systems. These technologies have transformed disaster forecasting. They can track a storm hundreds of kilometres offshore and help authorities estimate its likely path, rainfall and intensity. But a forecast becomes useful only when it reaches people and leads to action.
This is where another form of information becomes important: local knowledge. People who have lived beside a river, coastline or floodplain for decades often possess detailed knowledge of how their surroundings behave during extreme weather. They know which roads become inaccessible, which low lying areas flood first, where water normally accumulates and which routes remain usable when others disappear under water. This knowledge is not a replacement for meteorology. It is another source of information that can complement scientific forecasting and disaster management.
A different kind of environmental information
Meteorological forecasting works with observations collected across large areas. Satellites monitor cloud systems, radars measure precipitation, weather stations record atmospheric conditions and numerical models simulate how a storm may evolve. Local knowledge operates at a much smaller scale.
A resident may know that a particular road becomes impassable after several hours of heavy rain. A fisher may understand how tides and local coastal conditions affect a landing area. Farmers may know which sections of a field retain water for longer. Communities living beside rivers can often identify locations that have repeatedly flooded in previous events. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction notes that communities living in hazard prone areas develop knowledge of local hazards, exposure, vulnerability and ways of preparing for, responding to and recovering from disasters. This information is particularly valuable because disasters are experienced locally.
The last mile of a warning
A cyclone warning issued by a meteorological agency is only the beginning of the warning process. Someone has to receive it, understand it and act on it. Odisha has developed systems specifically designed to carry warnings from the state level to communities. Its Early Warning Dissemination System was established to strengthen communication between state, district and block emergency centres and communities, with particular attention to vulnerable coastal areas.
Community networks can make this communication more effective. OSDMA’s disaster preparedness programmes include community based preparedness, awareness activities, training and local volunteers. During emergency exercises, village volunteers and local task force members have been used to communicate warnings and assist vulnerable people. The importance of this local connection is simple: a warning that exists only on a computer screen cannot protect a household.
Every major cyclone or flood leaves behind a record, not only in government reports but also in community memory. People remember where floodwater reached. They remember which bridges became inaccessible and which shelters remained reachable. They remember how long electricity and communication services were disrupted. Such memories can contribute to disaster preparedness when they are documented and tested against scientific information.
But memory must also be treated carefully. A past flood does not necessarily predict the exact behaviour of the next one. River channels change, drainage systems are modified, settlements expand and climate conditions vary. Local observations therefore work best when they are combined with current forecasts, hazard maps and scientific assessments rather than treated as an alternative to them.
The strongest approach is not to ask whether scientific knowledge or traditional knowledge is more important. The better question is how the two can work together. UNDRR’s research on traditional and Indigenous knowledge argues that these knowledge systems are not inherently opposed to modern science. It recommends participatory approaches that bring local knowledge into broader disaster risk reduction efforts while maintaining a science based framework. This distinction matters.
A local observation can identify a problem. Scientific monitoring can investigate it. A community can describe how a flood behaves in a particular location, while hydrological analysis can help explain why it happens and how the pattern may change. Together, they can produce a more detailed understanding of risk.
Odisha has spent decades developing community based disaster preparedness after the devastating 1999 Super Cyclone. OSDMA’s programmes include community preparedness, awareness, training, cyclone shelters and local response mechanisms. The state’s Aapada Mitra programme also trains community volunteers to support disaster response. During Cyclone Fani, trained volunteers assisted with activities including road clearance, first aid and support at cyclone and flood shelters.
These systems demonstrate an important principle of disaster management: resilience is not created only by technology or infrastructure. It also depends on people who understand their communities and are prepared to act.
Local knowledge must also evolve
There is a danger in romanticising traditional knowledge. Not every traditional observation is scientifically accurate, and environmental conditions can change enough to make old patterns unreliable. Rising populations, altered drainage, new infrastructure and changing weather can all modify local risk.
That is why local knowledge should be documented, evaluated and combined with scientific evidence. Modern disaster management can also help preserve useful knowledge by recording past flood levels, evacuation routes, community resources and locally identified vulnerable areas. The objective is not to choose between the weather scientist and the person who has lived beside the river all their life.
It is to allow both to contribute what they know. A satellite can tell us that a cyclone is approaching. A forecast can estimate where heavy rainfall may occur. A warning system can communicate the danger. But someone on the ground still has to know which road floods first, who needs help leaving, where people can safely gather and how the community will respond. Disaster science tells us what may happen. Local knowledge can help explain what that hazard means on the ground. When those two forms of knowledge meet, preparedness becomes more than a warning. It becomes a community response.