Ipsa Tripathy
Bhubaneswar: For the past few days, a weather system over the Bay of Bengal has been watched closely across Odisha. It was widely referred to as “Cyclone Arnab”, but there is an important scientific distinction: the India Meteorological Department (IMD) did not classify the system as a cyclonic storm. The system intensified from a low pressure area into a depression and then a deep depression before crossing the north Andhra Pradesh–south Odisha coast. “Arnab” is the next available name on the North Indian Ocean naming list; the name would be used if the system reached cyclonic-storm intensity.
That distinction matters because the event demonstrates something meteorologists repeatedly emphasise: a system does not need to become a named cyclone to produce serious rainfall, flooding and disruption.
What happened in the Bay of Bengal?
The weather system developed over the Bay of Bengal and gradually moved west-northwestwards. By September 23, the IMD reported that it had strengthened into a deep depression and was positioned close to the north Andhra Pradesh coast. At 5:30 pm on September 23, the system was about 30 km south-southwest of Kalingapatnam in Andhra Pradesh and around 160 km southwest of Gopalpur in Odisha. The IMD expected it to cross between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur, close to southwest of Kalingapatnam.
The landfall process began during the early hours of September 24. The latest reports indicate that the system was moving inland and was expected to continue northwestwards while gradually weakening. The IMD’s current Odisha warning still calls for extremely heavy rainfall on September 24, followed by very heavy rainfall on September 25 and 26, with heavy rain possible on September 27. So, although the system did not become Cyclone Arnab according to the IMD classification, its rainfall footprint is still significant.
South Odisha felt the system first
Southern Odisha experienced some of the most immediate effects. Ganjam and Gajapati recorded substantial rainfall, while parts of Koraput also received intense precipitation. On September 23, Gajapati recorded an average of about 79 mm during the preceding 24 hours, with Mohana receiving 145 mm. Ganjam recorded an average of about 62 mm, while Berhampur and Chhatrapur recorded more than 115 mm during the same period.
In Koraput, Semiliguda recorded 180.2 mm, while Nandapur, Jeypore and Borigumma also recorded more than 100 mm during the reported period. Authorities were particularly monitoring the Indravati, Kolab and Sabari river systems because continued rainfall could produce waterlogging and connectivity problems. The combination of intense rainfall and hilly terrain also produced landslides. Roads were blocked by fallen trees and debris in Ganjam and Gajapati, while houses were reported damaged in parts of R Udayagiri. More than 5,000 people had been shifted to safer locations in parts of Ganjam and Gajapati as the system approached.
What happened to everyday livelihoods?
For communities, the effect of such a weather system is not measured only in millimetres of rain. When roads become blocked, agricultural workers cannot easily reach fields. When schools and anganwadi centres close, normal routines stop. When fishing is suspended because of rough seas, fishing households temporarily lose access to their principal livelihood activity.
The IMD reported very rough to high sea conditions along the south Odisha coast, and fishing activities were restricted as the system approached. For households in vulnerable areas, evacuation itself can mean leaving behind livestock, agricultural equipment, shops and other belongings. The immediate priority is safety, but the economic effects can continue after the rainfall stops. The disruption also extends to transport. Fallen trees, landslides, inundated roads and damaged local infrastructure can interrupt the movement of agricultural produce and essential goods.
What does it mean for Odisha’s agriculture?
Agriculture is particularly sensitive to the timing of heavy rainfall. September is an important period in Odisha’s agricultural calendar. Paddy and other crops are progressing through different stages depending on location and planting date. Excess rainfall at this stage can create waterlogging, cause lodging of crops, erode soil and delay field operations. Vegetable and horticultural crops can also be damaged by prolonged water exposure and strong winds.
However, there is not yet a verified statewide estimate of crop damage caused specifically by this September 2026 deep depression. It would be premature to attach a precise economic loss figure to the event before field-level crop assessments are completed.
Odisha’s agriculture department has identified cyclones, cyclonic rainfall and unseasonal rain as recurring causes of crop damage in the state. Its climate-risk assessment also identifies tropical cyclones, floods and other hazards as significant risks to agriculture, livestock and fisheries. This event therefore matters not because every field has necessarily been damaged, but because it shows how quickly a period of intense rainfall can create additional risks during an already important agricultural season.
Is this a climate-change event?
This is where scientific caution is essential. A single deep depression cannot be described as being caused by climate change without a formal attribution study. Natural atmospheric variability produces cyclones, depressions and heavy rainfall even in a changing climate.
Climate science does, however, provide a broader context. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour, increasing the potential for intense precipitation when atmospheric conditions produce heavy rain. Ocean warming can also influence tropical cyclone behaviour, although the relationship between climate change and individual storms involves several interacting factors. Therefore, it is scientifically safer to say that Arnab was a weather event occurring within a changing climate, rather than claiming that climate change created this particular system.
The real lesson for Odisha
Perhaps the most important feature of this event is that it remained below cyclonic-storm intensity but still produced serious consequences. That distinction is increasingly important for disaster preparedness. Risk does not depend only on whether a system receives a cyclone name. Rainfall intensity, terrain, river conditions, soil saturation, drainage and the vulnerability of communities can determine the actual impact.
Odisha’s disaster-management system has increasingly been built around this understanding. The state currently has hundreds of cyclone shelters, trained community volunteers, emergency-response units and an extensive early-warning system. OSDMA describes community members as the first responders during the initial hours of a disaster. As of September 24, 2026, the immediate threat from the system is shifting from coastal landfall to heavy rainfall, waterlogging, flooding and landslides as the deep depression moves inland and weakens. IMD warnings remain in place for several days.
For Odisha, the story of “Arnab” is therefore not really about whether a cyclone received a name. It is about how a relatively compact weather system can affect roads, homes, farms, fisheries and daily life across a large area and why preparedness must begin with the rainfall and the risk, rather than with the label attached to the storm.